Electric Cars: Transformational Change or Niche Trend?

The GABA event on electric vehicles on October 12th at Cooley’s in Palo attracted an audience of nearly 100 people. GABA Automotive Industry Group Chair Thilo Koslowski presented  his Electric Vehicle analysis from Gartner, and moderated a panel of representatives from Better Place, Coulomb Technologies, General Motors, and AC Propulsion who exchanged their views on developments in the emerging electric vehicle industry.

 

Early electric vehicle: Lohner-Porsche from the year 1900

Thilo Koslowski, vice president and automotive practice leader at Gartner, disclosed numbers predicting that in industrialized automotive markets, battery-powered vehicles (plug-in full-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) will represent 5 to 8 percent of all vehicles sold using various types of propulsion technologies by 2020. Battery-powered vehicles will account for 15 to 20 percent of all vehicle sales by 2030.

According to Thilo’s analysis three key factors will impact EV adoption over the next years:

Automotive Industry and Technology Advancements
To test EV market acceptance and prepare for a potential boost in EV production, virtually all global mainstream automobile manufacturers are planning to bring at least one EV model to market in the next four years; some plan to do so even sooner. The growth in EVs is also opening the door to emerging vehicle manufacturers that specialize in the design, development and sale of battery-powered automobiles. Furthermore, the emergence of new supply chain partners that provide engineering, powertrain components, testing and battery offerings continues.

At the same time, key technological advancements are prerequisites for creating dependable battery-powered vehicles in the future and include:
-    Increased energy density for various chemical compositions in EV batteries and new powertrain designs with increased reliability
-    Advanced software control models (e.g., for energy, battery and temperature management)
-    Expanded standardization efforts, such as the SAE J1772 initiative for standardizing EV charging plugs, which is likely to be adopted by most OEMs this year

EV Infrastructure Developments
 Infrastructure developments require massive investments to provide users with a seamless transportation experience for battery-powered vehicles. To this end, infrastructure efforts need to accomplish new forms of collaboration between vehicle manufacturers, energy providers, charging service providers and vehicle owners. Gartner predicts that EV brokers will play a critical role in achieving this required collaboration aimed at simplifying EV ownership, but brokers' business models will need to adapt to a changing value chain over the next five years.

Societal and Political Trends

Consumer awareness about the operational costs of passenger vehicle ownership and the desire to meet environmental objectives has grown steadily in developed countries over the last three years in response to rising awareness about global warming, higher fuel costs and vehicle emissions. At the same time, regional governments have also increased their financial support for EV development.

Thilo Koslowski

Additional information is available in the Gartner report "The Electric Vehicle's Value Chain and Technology Evolution" at http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=1179817&subref=simplesearch